Publications

2026

  1. Citizen Forecasting in a Mixed Electoral System. The 2021 German federal election as a test case
    Arndt Leininger, Andreas E. Murr, Lukas Stötzer, and 1 more author
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2026
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2025

  1. Can individual MPs damage their party’s brand? Quasi-experimental evidence from a public procurement corruption scandal
    Arndt Leininger and Lukas Rudolph
    The Journal of Politics, 2025
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  2. Unequal Turnout Among the Newly Enfranchised: The Role of Political Efficacy
    Susanne Garritzmann, Sigrid Roßteutscher, Arndt Leininger, and 4 more authors
    Politics and Governance, 2025
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2024

  1. Voter expectations in district elections without polls. The role of national polls and previous district results
    Lukas Stötzer, Mark A. Kayser, Arndt Leininger, and 1 more author
    Public Opinion Quarterly, 2024
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  2. Coming of Voting Age. Evidence from a Natural Experiment on the Effects of Electoral Eligibility on Citizens’ Information-Seeking Behaviour
    Arndt Leininger, Armin Schäfer, Thorsten Faas, and 1 more author
    Electoral Studies, 2024
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  3. Die Positionen der politischen Parteien zur Ausweitung der direkten Demokratie in Deutschland
    Arndt Leininger
    In Jahrbuch für direkte Demokratie 2022, 2024
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  4. Bürger:innenprognosen in einem Mischwahlsystem: Die deutsche Bundestagswahl 2021 als Testfall
    Arndt Leininger, Andreas E. Murr, Lukas F. Stoetzer, and 1 more author
    In Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen zur Bundestagswahl 2021, 2024
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2023

  1. Strategic Alignment in Times of Crisis: Voting at the Dawn of a Global Pandemic
    Arndt Leininger and Max Schaub
    Political Behavior, 2023
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  2. Cleavage politics, polarisation, and participation in Western Europe
    Endre Borbáth, Swen Hutter, and Arndt Leininger
    West European Politics, 2023
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  3. Temporary disenfranchisement: negative side-effects of lowering the voting age
    Arndt Leininger, Marie-Lou Sohnius, Thorsten Faas, and 2 more authors
    American Political Science Review, 2023
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  4. Ja oder Nein und nichts dazwischen? Zum Verhältnis von direkter Demokratie und gesellschaftlicher Polarisierung
    Arndt Leininger and Felix Grünewald
    In Mehr direkte Demokratie wagen, 2023
  5. The Economy and Chancellor Approval in Germany: A Cautionary Tale about Data Vintages and Measures
    Mark A. Kayser and Arndt Leininger
    In Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support, 2023

2022

  1. Lowering the Quality of Democracy by Lowering the Voting Age? Comparing the Impact of School, Classmates, and Parents on 15- to 18-Year-Olds’ Political Interest and Turnout
    Sigrid Rossteutscher, Thorsten Faas, Arndt Leininger, and 1 more author
    German Politics, 2022
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  2. Reduzieren Zustimmungsquoren die Beteiligung an direktdemokratischen Abstimmungen?
    Thomas Marx and Arndt Leininger
    Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 2022
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  3. Electoral Participation, Political Disaffection, and the Rise of the Populist Radical Right
    Julia Schulte-Cloos and Arndt Leininger
    Party Politics, 2022
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  4. A Länder-Based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election
    Mark A. Kayser, Arndt Leininger, and Anastasiia Vlasenko
    PS: Political Science & Politics, 2022
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2021

  1. Do Populist Parties Increase Turnout? Evidence from over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies
    Arndt Leininger and Maurits Meijers
    Political Studies, 2021
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  2. Coattails and Spillover-Effects: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Concurrent Executive and Legislative Elections
    Lukas Rudolph and Arndt Leininger
    Electoral Studies, 2021
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  3. Wählen in der Pandemie: Herausforderungen und Konsequenzen
    Arndt Leininger and Aiko Wagner
    Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 2021
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2020

  1. The Impact of Group Identity on Coalition Building
    Denise Laroze, David Hugh-Jones, and Arndt Leininger
    Research & Politics, 2020
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  2. Votes at 16 in Germany: Examining sub-national variation
    Arndt Leininger and Thorsten Faas
    In Lowering the Voting Age to 16 - Learning from Real Experiences Worldwide, 2020
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2019

  1. Instrumental or procedural democrats? The evolution of procedural preferences after democratization
    Claudia Landwehr and Arndt Leininger
    Political Research Exchange, 2019
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  2. Economic Voting in Direct Democracy: A Case Study of the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum
    Arndt Leininger
    Politics & Governance, 2019
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  3. Issue Voting und Economic Voting
    Thorsten Faas and Arndt Leininger
    In Handbuch der politikwissenschaftlichen Einstellungs- und Verhaltensforschung, 2019

2018

  1. How to increase turnout in low salience elections. Quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of simultaneous second-order elections on political participation
    Arndt Leininger, Lukas Rudolph, and Steffen Zittlau
    Political Science Research and Methods, 2018
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  2. Die Erfolge der AfD und die Wahlbeteiligung: Gibt es einen Zusammenhang?
    Stefan Haußner and Arndt Leininger
    Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 2018
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  3. Forecasting
    Arndt Leininger
    In Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft, 2018
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2017

  1. Eine länderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017
    Arndt Leininger and Mark A. Kayser
    Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 2017
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  2. How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss referendums
    Arndt Leininger and Lea Heyne
    Electoral Studies, 2017
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  3. A Länder-based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election
    Mark A. Kayser and Arndt Leininger
    PS: Political Science and Politics, 2017
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2016

  1. A Predictive Test of Voters’ Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election
    Mark A. Kayser and Arndt Leininger
    German Politics, 2016
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2015

  1. Vintage Errors: Do Real-Time Economic Data Improve Election Forecasts?
    Mark A. Kayser and Arndt Leininger
    Research and Politics, 2015
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  2. Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen – Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen?
    Arndt Leininger
    Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 2015
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