Publications

Articles in peer-reviewed journals

Lukas Stötzer, Mark A. Kayser, Arndt Leininger, and Andreas Murr “Voter expectations in district elections without polls. The role of national polls and previous district results”, In: Public Opinion Quarterly. DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae015

Leininger, Arndt, Armin Schäfer, Thorsten Faas and Sigrid Roßteutscher (2024) “Coming of Voting Age. Evidence from a Natural Experiment on the Effects of Electoral Eligibility on Citizens’ Information-Seeking Behaviour”, In: Electoral Studies. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102751

Leininger, Arndt and Max Schaub (2023) “Strategic Alignment in Times of Crisis: Voting at the Dawn of a Global Pandemic”, Political Behavior. DOI: 10.1007/s11109-023-09885-8

Borbáth, Endre, Swen Hutter and Arndt Leininger (2023) “Cleavage politics, polarisation, and participation in Western Europe”, West European Politics, 46(4), pp. 631–651. article Introduction to the Special Issue “Politics under Pressure: Polarisation and Participation in Western Europe”

Leininger, Arndt, Marie-Lou Sohnius, Thorsten Faas, Sigrid Roßteutscher and Armin Schäfer (2023) “Temporary disenfranchisement: negative side-effects of lowering the voting age”, American Political Science Review, 117(1), pp. 355–361. article replication materials

Rossteutscher, Sigrid, Thorsten Faas, Arndt Leininger, and Armin Schäfer (2022) “Lowering the Quality of Democracy by Lowering the Voting Age? Comparing the Impact of School, Classmates, and Parents on 15- to 18-Year-Olds’ Political Interest and Turnout”, German Politics, 31(4), pp. 483–510. article

Marx, Thomas and Arndt Leininger (2022) “Reduzieren Zustimmungsquoren die Beteiligung an direktdemokratischen Abstimmungen?”, Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 16(2), pp. 291–323. article

Schulte-Cloos, Julia and Arndt Leininger (2022) “Electoral Participation, Political Disaffection, and the Rise of the Populist Radical Right”. In: Party Politics, 28(3), pp. 431–443. article replication materials

Kayser, Mark A., Arndt Leininger and Anastasiia Vlasenko (2022) “A Länder-Based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics, 55(1), pp. 79–84. article

Leininger, Arndt and Maurits Meijers (2021) “Do Populist Parties Increase Turnout? Evidence from over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies”, Political Studies, 69(3), pp. 665-685. article replication materials

Rudolph, Lukas and Arndt Leininger (2021) “Coattails and Spillover-Effects: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Concurrent Executive and Legislative Elections”. In: Electoral Studies. article replication materials

Laroze, Denise, David Hugh-Jones and Arndt Leininger (2020) “The Impact of Group Identity on Coalition Building”. In: Research & Politics. article replication materials

Landwehr, Claudia and Arndt Leininger (2019): “Instrumental or procedural democrats? The evolution of procedural preferences after democratization”, In: Political Research Exchange, 1(1). article

Leininger, Arndt (2019): “Economic Voting in Direct Democracy: A Case Study of the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum”, In: Politics & Governance, 7(2), pp. 306-333. article

Leininger, Arndt, Lukas Rudolph and Steffen Zittlau (2018) “How to increase turnout in low salience elections. Quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of simultaneous second-order elections on political participation”, Political Science Research and Methods, 6(3), pp. 509-526. article | pre-print | replication materials

Leininger, Arndt and Mark A. Kayser (2017) “Eine länderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017”, Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58(3), pp. 407-417. article | pre-print | replication materials

Leininger, Arndt and Lea Heyne (2017) “How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss referendums”, Electoral Studies, 48, pp. 84-97. article | pre-print

Kayser, Mark A. and Arndt Leininger (2016) “A Predictive Test of Voters’ Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election”, German Politics, 25(1), pp. 106-130. article | pre-print

Kayser, Mark A. and Arndt Leininger (2015) “Vintage Errors: Do Real-Time Economic Data Improve Election Forecasts?”, Research and Politics, 2(3). article replication materials

Editorships

Borbáth, Endre, Swen Hutter and Arndt Leininger (Hrsg.) (2023) “Under Pressure: Polarisation and Participation in Western Europe”, West European Politics (Special Issue), 46(4).

Contributions to edited volumes and non-peer-reviewed journal articles

Leininger, Arndt and Felix Grünewald (2023) “Ja oder Nein und nichts dazwischen? Zum Verhältnis von direkter Demokratie und gesellschaftlicher Polarisierung”, Arne Pautsch, Hermann K. Heußner, Frank Rehmet and Lukas Kiepe (Ed.) Mehr direkte Demokratie wagen, Verlag C.H.Beck.

Kayser, Mark A. and Arndt Leininger (2023) “The Economy and Chancellor Approval in Germany: A Cautionary Tale about Data Vintages and Measures”, Timothy Hellwig and Matthew M. Singer (Ed.) Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support, Oxford University Press

Asbrock, Frank, Rowenia Bender, Deliah Bolesta and Arndt Leininger (2022) ‘Tagungsbericht 24 h of Political Psychology’ – Jahrestagung 2022 des German Political Psychology Network,” Forschungsjournal Soziale Bewegungen, 35(2), pp. 399-403. article (gated)

Leininger, Arndt and Aiko Wagner (2021) “Wählen in der Pandemie: Herausforderungen und Konsequenzen”, In: Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 31(1), pp. 91-100. (Invited contribution to the section “Focus”, without peer review) . article

Leininger, Arndt and Thorsten Faas (2020) “Votes at 16 in Germany: Examining sub-national variation”, In: Jan Eichhorn and Johannes Bergh (Ed.) Lowering the Voting Age to 16 - Learning from Real Experiences Worldwide, Palgrave. chapter (gated)

Faas, Thorsten and Arndt Leininger (2019) “Issue Voting und Economic Voting”, In: Thorsten Faas, Oscar W. Gabriel and Jürgen Maier (Ed.) Handbuch der politikwissenschaftlichen Einstellungs- und Verhaltensforschung, Nomos. chapter (gated)

Haußner, Stefan and Arndt Leininger (2018) “Die Erfolge der AfD und die Wahlbeteiligung: Gibt es einen Zusammenhang?” in Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 49(1), pp. 69-90. article | pre-print

Leininger, Arndt (2018): “Forecasting”, In: Claudius Wagemann, Achim Goerres and Markus Siewert (Ed.) Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft, Wiesbaden: VS Springer. chapter | pre-print

Kayser, Mark A. and Arndt Leininger (2017) “A Länder-based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election”, PS: Political Science and Politics, 50(3), pp. 689-692. article | pre-print | replication materials

Leininger, Arndt (2015) “Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen - Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen?” in: Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 46(4), pp. 675-691. article | pre-print

Leininger, Arndt (2015) “Direct Democracy in Europe: Potentials and Pitfalls”, Global Policy, 6(S1), pp. 17-27. article | pre-print

Book reviews

Leininger, Arndt (2023) “Rechtspopulismus”, KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie. DOI: 10.1007/s11577-023-00915-1

Leininger, Arndt (2020) “Rehmet, Frank, Neelke Wagner, und Tim Willy Weber (2019): Volksabstimmungen in Europa. Regelungen und Praxis im internationalen Vergleich”, Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 61, pp. 647-649. article

Leininger, Arndt (2020) “Book review: Voters & Voting in Context: Multiple Contexts and the Heterogeneous German Electorate” in: Party Politics, online first. article

Project reports

Faas, Thorsten and Arndt Leininger (2022) “Mehr Wählen wagen? Ungleichheiten beim ‘Wählen ab 16’ und ihre Folgen”. OBS-Arbeitspapier 56. Frankfurt am Main: Otto Brenner Stiftung. URL: https://www.otto-brenner-stiftung.de/mehr-waehlen-wagen Reported in Deutschlandfunk, Zeit Online, Süddeutsche Zeitung, among others.

Gyamerah, Daniel, Julius Lagodny, Arndt Leininger and Deniz Yıldırım-Caliman (2021) “Wähler*innen mit Migrationshintergrund als wahlentscheidender Faktor: Ihr potentieller Einfluss auf die Bundestagswahl 2021”. Citizens For Europe (CFE), Berlin. URL: https://vielfaltentscheidet.de/publikationen/

Faas, Thorsten and Arndt Leininger (2020) “Wählen mit 16? Ein empirischer Beitrag zur Debatte um die Absenkung des Wahlalters”. OBS-Arbeitspapier 41. Frankfurt am Main: Otto Brenner Stiftung. URL: https://www.otto-brenner-stiftung.de/waehlen-mit-16 Reported in Spiegel Online, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Tagesthemen, among others.

Open access publication